Cedar Creek TX vs Hot Springs AR

What does each location actually cost? And how to make Hot Springs pay for itself.
Cedar Creek, TX
Rental property • Primary residence • Reverse mortgage
+$7,109/mo
Monthly NET profit
IncomeMonthly
Rental income (11 tenants)+$6,620
Cindy Donley (net of $200 obligations)+$3,750
Total CC Income +$10,370
ExpensesMonthly
Bluebonnet Electric-$993
Germania Insurance (2 policies)-$1,175
Maintenance (DJ avg)-$800
Daniel Weems (free rent value)-$600
AT&T (if Cedar Creek line)-$266
Resort TV / Internet-$89
Donnie Stark (grounds)-$58
Security Systems-$56
Reverse mortgage$0
Bastrop County property taxPaid
Total CC Expenses -$3,261*
Cedar Creek NET +$7,109/mo
Cash machine. Funds everything else.
Hot Springs, AR — 186 Echo Pt
Lake Hamilton • Owned free & clear • Paid $298K • Zestimate: $317,400 • Up $3,632 last month
-$2,186/mo
Monthly NET loss
IncomeMonthly
Rental / Airbnb income$0
Bergeron Group (one-time)$800*
Total HS Income $0 recurring
ExpensesMonthly
Garland County property tax-$228
Modern Storage (moved out 3/30)$0
Summit Utilities (gas)-$180
Spectrum Internet-$161
Entergy Arkansas (electric)-$115
City of Hot Springs (water)-$80
Spectrum Mobile-$73
Lowe's / Home Depot (HS repairs)-$200
Groceries (Harps, Kroger — HS portion)-$335
GreenSky swim spa ($27,875 at 9.99%)-$431.58
Total HS Expenses -$2,186
Hot Springs NET -$2,186/mo
$317K asset earning nothing. Swim spa alone costs $432/mo ($2,800/yr in interest). *Bergeron $800 was one-time. Needs Airbnb or retainer to break even.

Shared Expenses (Both Locations)

ExpenseMonthlyNotes
Hyundai Palisade$1,795Goes wherever you go
Car Insurance (Germania?)~$600May be in the Germania $1,175 — need to verify
GreenSky (swim spa)—Moved to Hot Springs expenses
Subscriptions$401Digital — location independent
Credit card payments$1,200+Debt — location independent
Cindy Donley obligations$200Cedar Creek adjacent land
Total Shared ~$4,196

The Full Picture

+$7,109
Cedar Creek NET
-$2,186
Hot Springs NET
-$4,196
Shared Expenses
+$727
Combined NET

Cedar Creek — Profit & Loss

Rental income (11 tenants)+$6,620
Cindy Donley (net of obligations)+$3,750
Cedar Creek operating costs-$3,261
Cedar Creek NET +$7,109/mo

Cedar Creek is a cash machine. Even with the massive Bluebonnet electric bill and all the maintenance, it nets over $7K/month. This property funds everything.

Hot Springs — Profit & Loss

Income from Hot Springs$0
Bergeron Group (billed, not recurring)$800 one-time
Hot Springs operating costs-$2,186
Hot Springs NET -$2,186/mo

Hot Springs is bleeding $2,186/month with zero recurring income. The Bergeron $800 was a one-time bill that may not repeat. Every month you keep Hot Springs open without income, Cedar Creek subsidizes it.

Lake Hamilton Airbnb Market

Your property: 186 Echo Pt — ~2,087 sqft on Lake Hamilton, free and clear, Zestimate $317,400.

Hot Springs is Arkansas's #1 tourism destination — 2M+ visitors/year. Oaklawn Racing, Bathhouse Row, Hot Springs National Park. Lake Hamilton lakefront/lake-area homes are the premium tier of the short-term rental market.

Property TypeNightly RatePeak Season
Lake Hamilton 2BR house$125-175$175-250
Lake Hamilton 3BR house$150-225$225-350
Lake Hamilton 4BR+ / luxury$200-350$350-500+
Downtown Hot Springs 2BR$100-150$150-200

Peak seasons: Oaklawn Racing (Jan-May), spring break, summer lake season, fall foliage. Low season is really only Nov-Dec.

Conservative estimate for 186 Echo Pt: $150-200/night based on ~2,087 sqft, Lake Hamilton location, $317K value.

Verify right now: Open Airbnb.com, search "Lake Hamilton, Hot Springs AR" for any April weekend. See what 3BR houses charge. That's your comp.

Revenue Projections for 186 Echo Pt

ScenarioNightsRateGrossAfter Fees (15%)Net After $2,186
Conservative12$150 $1,800$1,530 +$4
Moderate15$165 $2,475$2,104 +$578
Good18$175 $3,150$2,678 +$1,152
Peak Season22$200 $4,400$3,740 +$2,214

You're only in HS about 1/3 of the time. The other 20+ nights/month the house sits empty. Even the conservative scenario breaks even. The moderate scenario puts $578/mo profit in your pocket — $6,936/year from a house that currently earns nothing.

How to Make Hot Springs Pay for Itself

You need $2,186/mo from Hot Springs to break even. Here are the options:

Option A: Airbnb
$1,800-3,000/mo
Hot Springs is a tourism town — 2M+ visitors/year, Oaklawn, Bathhouse Row, national park. Short-term rentals do extremely well here.

Pros:
  • Hot Springs Airbnb average: $120-180/night
  • Even 50% occupancy at $130/night = $1,950/mo
  • Peak season (racing season, spring/fall) could hit $3,000+/mo
  • Covers ALL Hot Springs costs and then some
  • You already know the property and the market
  • BG could refer guests (tourism + real estate crossover)
Setup required before first guest:
  • Mini split for the shop — so it's livable when you're in HS (~$3,000-5,000 installed)
  • RV + RV hookup at the shop — your HS housing while guests are in the house
  • RV hookup needs: Electric, city water, well water, gas, septic (~$5,000-10,000)
  • RV purchase: Decent used RV ($5,000-15,000 depending on size/quality)
  • Total startup estimate: $13,000-30,000
  • At $2,000/mo Airbnb income, payback in 7-15 months
Cons:
  • Needs furnishing, setup, photos, listing creation
  • Management when you're in Cedar Creek (but can automate with smart locks + cleaners)
  • Outside Garland County STR regulations — no permits, no red tape, no restrictions. Huge advantage.
Option B: Bergeron Group Retainer
$800-2,100/mo
Get BG to sign a recurring monthly retainer for website management, social media, and digital marketing.

Pros:
  • You've already built 5 pages, audit, strategy — proven value
  • $2,186/mo retainer would make HS break even
  • Passive income — maintain sites, post to social, monthly reports
  • No physical property management needed
  • Your skills (web, social, SEO) justify the price
Cons:
  • Bergeron budget and scope not yet defined
  • No agreement signed yet after substantial free work
  • Only $800 billed so far — unclear if more is coming
  • She's going to Florida — momentum may stall
  • You'd be dependent on one client
Option C: Sell the House, Keep the Shop + BG
$300K cash + keep HS presence
Sell 186 Echo Pt (~$317K), keep the 30x30 shop and swim spa. Re-address the house as 188 Echo Pt for the buyer, keep 186 as your shop address. Run utilities to the shop.

Setup costs (one-time):
  • Extend water well to shop: ~$2,000-5,000
  • Electric service to shop: ~$2,000-4,000
  • City water connection: ~$1,500-3,000
  • Septic from city: ~$3,000-8,000
  • Total setup: ~$8,500-20,000
What $300K in cash does:
Pay off swim spa (GreenSky $27,875)-$27,875Saves $431.58/mo + $7,033 total interest
Pay off Dot's credit cards (est $15-20K)-$20,000Saves $1,200/mo in payments
Pay off BofA card ($53)-$53Clean slate
Shop utilities setup-$15,000One-time
Garland County property tax-$2,735Clear the overdue balance
Remaining cash ~$234,000
Monthly impact:
Eliminate house utilities (Summit, Entergy, City water)+$375/mo
Eliminate Spectrum (internet/mobile)+$234/mo
Eliminate swim spa payment+$432/mo
Eliminate credit card payments+$1,200/mo
Eliminate Modern Storage (move stuff to shop)+$182/mo
New: Shop electric/water (minimal)-$75/mo
New: Shop internet-$60/mo
Net monthly savings +$2,288/mo
What you keep:
  • 30x30 shop — workspace, storage, base of operations in HS
  • Swim spa — paid off, no more $432/mo payments
  • 186 Echo Pt address — your HS presence stays
  • BG relationship — you're still local, still in Hot Springs
  • $234K in the bank — invested at even 4% = $9,360/yr passive income ($780/mo)
  • Zero debt — swim spa, credit cards, everything gone
What changes:
  • No house in HS — you'd stay at the shop or with friends when visiting
  • Could build out a small living space in the 30x30 shop over time
  • No Airbnb income (no house to rent) — but also no house expenses
  • Bergeron work and BG's network still fully intact

The math: Combined NET goes from +$727/mo today to +$3,015/mo — plus $234K cash in the bank and zero debt. Your monthly margin nearly quadruples overnight. This is the freedom option.

And you keep BG. You still have the 186 address, the shop, your HS presence, and the Bergeron relationship. BG's network still feeds you clients. Bergeron retainer + referrals could add another $1,400-3,600/mo on top of the $3,015. Total potential: +$4,415-6,615/mo.

Option D: Bergeron + BG's Network (Keep the House)
$1,400-3,600/mo
BG is the anchor. Her network feeds you clients. No Airbnb needed, no selling — build income through digital services.

The BG Multiplier:
  • BG has 1,200+ connections — business owners, contractors, restaurants, service providers, entrepreneurs across Hot Springs and beyond
  • You're building her digital empire — websites, social media, SEO, content strategy. Every success story becomes a referral.
  • Her network is your pipeline — local businesses, restaurants, shops, tourism operators, and service providers she knows are all potential web/social media clients
  • BG is THE connector in Hot Springs — one introduction from her carries more weight than any cold pitch
  • The work you do for BG is your portfolio — "I built The Bergeron Group's entire digital network" is a pitch that closes other local business clients

Revenue model:
  • Bergeron retainer: $800-2,100/mo
  • BG referrals: 2-3 local business clients at $300-500/mo each = $600-1,500/mo
  • Combined potential: $1,400-3,600/mo from Hot Springs

At the high end, Hot Springs goes from -$2,186/mo drain to +$1,414/mo profit — all from digital services, no selling, no Airbnb. BG isn't just a client — she's your best business development partner.

Option E: Web Business Only — No BG
$800-2,000/mo
Build a web/digital marketing business independently, without relying on BG's network.

  • Use the Bergeron portfolio as your calling card to pitch other local businesses directly
  • Target Hot Springs tourism businesses, restaurants, shops — they all need web presence
  • Paul's credentials (King of Twitter, BHI/BDX, BeJane.com) stand on their own
  • Can work remotely from Cedar Creek or anywhere
  • Not dependent on any single relationship
  • Slower growth without BG's introductions, but fully self-directed

Pros: Total independence. No relationship risk. Work from anywhere.
Cons: Slower client acquisition. Cold outreach instead of warm intros. Harder to break into HS market without a local connector.

This is the fallback if the BG partnership doesn't materialize. Viable but slower.

Option F: Fail — Close Hot Springs Entirely
Save $2,186/mo
Walk away from Hot Springs completely. Sell the house, sell or abandon the shop, stop all HS expenses. Full retreat to Cedar Creek.

  • Sell 186 Echo Pt — pocket ~$300K
  • Cancel all HS utilities, storage, internet
  • No more $2,186/mo bleed
  • Lose the shop, the swim spa, the HS address
  • Lose the BG relationship and HS client pipeline
  • Lose the Airbnb option permanently
  • All income from Cedar Creek only

The math: Cedar Creek nets $7,109/mo + Social Security $3,626 + no HS expenses = +$10,735/mo plus $300K in the bank.

This is the failure scenario — comfortable financially but you lose everything you've built in Hot Springs. Only consider this if Options A through E all fail.

Recommendation

Option D: Bergeron + BG's Network. Here's why:

1. Cedar Creek is your engine — protect it. It nets $7,109/mo. Never jeopardize this. Keep DJ happy, keep tenants happy, keep Cindy paying.

2. Hot Springs needs to pay its own way — now. At -$2,186/mo, it's a $26,232/year drain. Bergeron retainer + 2-3 referral clients from BG's network can cover it.

3. BG is your business development partner. You're building her digital empire — websites, social media, SEO, content strategy. In return, she introduces you to her network: local businesses, restaurants, tourism operators, service providers. Every referral she makes is a potential $300-500/mo web client. BG is exclusively your real estate client — your other clients come from different industries in her network. You grow her brand, she opens doors for you.

4. Airbnb is still an option later. If you want to add Airbnb income on top, you'd need a mini split in the shop, RV hookup + RV for your housing ($13K-30K startup). But that's a separate decision — Option C works without it. Get the digital income flowing first, then decide if the Airbnb investment makes sense.

5. Build the portfolio. The Bergeron Group's digital network (5 pages, social audit, social hub, strategy) is your calling card. "I built this for the #1 real estate team in Hot Springs" is how you pitch every other local business. BG's success is your marketing.

6. Set a milestone. Target 3 paying clients by June 1, 2026 — Bergeron + 2 referrals from BG's network. At $2,186+/mo combined, Hot Springs breaks even and becomes a profit center.

Hot Springs Break-Even Calculator

ScenarioMonthly IncomeNet After $2,186 Cost
Airbnb only — 10 nights @ $130 $1,300 -$226
Airbnb only — 12 nights @ $130 $1,560 +$34
Airbnb only — 15 nights @ $130 $1,950 +$424
Bergeron $800 + Airbnb 10 nights $2,100 +$574
Bergeron $1,500 + Airbnb 15 nights $3,450 +$1,924
Bergeron $2,100 + Airbnb 20 nights (peak) $4,700 +$3,174

You only need 12 nights per month at $130/night to break even on Hot Springs. That's very achievable in a tourism town with 2M+ annual visitors.

Next Steps for Hot Springs

PriorityActionTimeline
NOW Get BG to sign an agreement — any agreement. $800/mo minimum retainer. Don't do more free work. Before she leaves for Florida
NOW Research Hot Springs Airbnb regulations — Garland County STR permits, City of HS rules This week
April Talk to Dot about Airbnb — frame it as "the HS property pays for itself or we close it." Give her a role. When back in TX
April Get the HS property Airbnb-ready — furnish, photograph, create listing 2-3 weeks
May First Airbnb guests — target Oaklawn racing season overlap May 2026
June 1 Deadline: If HS isn't generating income, start Option D shutdown process Hard deadline
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